More than three quarters of oilpatch companies and institutional investors say they are confident both the Pacific Link pipeline extending to British Columbia and the Pathways carbon storage venture will come to fruition, a new survey suggests.
A poll by ATB Cormark found that 77 percent of industry respondents expressed optimism about the project’s progression, but were uncertain about a construction start date.
The investment firm conducted a survey of 22 energy services companies, 27 exploration and production companies, and 42 institutional investors between Sept. 14 and Sept. 28.
“A strong majority of survey takers expect positive final investment decisions for key energy infrastructure projects including Pacific Link/Pathways,” the report on the results said.
The survey was conducted just before the Alberta government’s million-barrel-a-day Pacific Link pipeline was officially recognized as the first national-interest project under federal legislation enacted last year.
Prime Minister Mark Carney designated Pacific Link as the first project of national interest under the Building Canada Act on Oct. 1, placing it on a fast-track approval process. The pipeline is contingent on the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project being built to offset emissions.
Alberta has set Sept. 1, 2027, as the start date for pipeline construction, with a projected operational date of 2032 to 2033.
Only 24 percent of those surveyed by ATB Cormark said they thought the pipeline project’s construction would actually start next year. Another 53 percent of those polled estimated building would begin in 2028 or later.
The survey also found that major energy export infrastructure is now seen as achievable rather than a “pipe dream.” Among respondents expressing firm convictions, most said they anticipate favourable final investment decisions for multiple major projects.
Ninety-one percent said they expect a positive final investment decision for the Pacific Link/Pathways project, compared to 97 percent for the Ksi Lisims LNG project, a proposed floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) export and marine terminal development on the northwest coast of British Columbia.
Another 93 percent said they expect a positive final investment decision for the Prairie Connector, a proposed crude oil pipeline expansion by South Bow Corp designed to transport Canadian oil from Hardisty, Alta., to the Canada-U.S. border.
Together, these three initiatives are expected to deliver a minimum of 1.6 million barrels daily of crude oil export capability and 1.6 billion cubic feet daily of liquefied natural gas export potential to the global marketplace.
The Canadian Press contributed to this report.
