Americans will pay more for Obamacare in 2027 as rates rise during the open enrollment period that began Nov. 1.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare, subsidizes exchange plans for individuals and families with an income of up to 400 percent of the federal poverty level.
Obamacare premiums are expected to surge at a double-digit rate in 2027, and taxpayers will pay most of the increases. But enrollment is expected to decrease due to enhanced federal tax credits expiring and the Trump administration taking actions to eliminate duplicate, ineligible, and nonexistent enrollees.
Here are the changes in the ACA marketplace heading into 2027 in charts.
Higher Premiums
KFF, a healthcare research center, estimated that Obamacare benchmark Silver premiums will increase 13 percent in 2027 based on federal data. That’s the second-highest rise since 2018.
Those who do not qualify for a subsidy will be most affected by the new increases, according to Cynthia Cox, a vice president at KFF. They are middle-class Americans whose income exceeds $64,000 per person—400 percent of the federal poverty level.“They may or may not be able to afford to continue to keep their coverage into next year,” Cox said. “A lot of them have already moved into Bronze plans, which are the cheapest plans.”
Fifty-six percent of people with Obamacare were enrolled in Silver plans in 2025, but they declined to 43 percent in 2026, while the portion of Bronze enrollees increased from 30 percent to 40 percent, according to federal data.
Next year, an average 40-year-old will have to pay $703 per month for benchmark Silver premiums, up from $497 in 2025. That’s before the subsidy.
In 2027, more than 75 percent of Americans who purchase an ACA plan through HealthCare.gov will continue to have access to coverage with premiums at or below $50, the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services stated in an October factsheet.
Those with annual income less than 150 percent of the federal poverty level—who qualified for a $0-premium benchmark Silver plan during the COVID era—will now have to pay a small share of their income toward benchmark plans. Such enrollees accounted for 56 percent of plans in 2026.
Individual premiums can vary by metal tier across states.Florida and Texas accounted for almost two in five Obamacare enrollments in 2026. Some 2 million Floridians signed up for the Silver plan at an average after-subsidy price of $85 in 2026.
Paying a similar price of $86, 1.7 million Texans got coverage in Gold plans for 2026. Gold sign-ups in Texas exceeded those in Bronze or Silver. Texas required insurers to increase Silver plan premiums to maximize the tax credits Texans receive. But the rule eventually made Silver plans more costly than Gold plans.
Although enhanced federal tax credits expired, at least 11 states provide extra funding—state money paid to insurers—to lower enrollees’ monthly premiums. The states include California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.
New Jersey’s state funding covers enrollees with incomes up to 600 percent of the federal poverty level, which amounts to a single person earning up to $94,000 a year. New Mexico is the only state that fully offsets the federal subsidy reduction.
Americans can shop for plans through HealthCare.gov until Jan. 15, 2027, and should see the actual monthly premiums when signing up.
Taxpayers Pay About 80 Percent
Taxpayer dollars fund several insurance programs for distinct populations. Medicaid covers 66 million low-income or disabled Americans, and Medicare protects 70 million individuals, primarily seniors.
Obamacare shields 19.2 million Americans as of February this year. According to the latest government data, premium tax credits cost federal taxpayers about $116.6 billion in 2024.
Next year, taxpayers will pay around $10,000 for a 50-year-old enrollee—some 82 percent of the premium for a year’s benchmark coverage. That’s lower than the share of 93 percent in 2025, when the enhanced ACA premium subsidy expired at the end of the year.
Factors Driving the Increase
A September survey of 24 BlueCross BlueShield plans pointed to medical and pharmacy costs as a major driver of premium increases. The survey also noted that the expiration of the enhanced subsidies and the No Surprises Act, which took effect in 2022, were among the most important policy factors driving rate increases.
Healthcare accounting group Wakely highlighted a smaller and sicker pool of enrollees that could also put upward pressure on premiums.
Yet while some insurers blame the rate increase on healthcare costs, the loss of enhanced subsidies, and sicker enrollees, others argue it stems from the way Obamacare is organized.
Timothy P. Carney, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said premiums went up “by design” in a Nov. 1 article. Carney argued that the law requires every American to buy health insurance. But instead of increasing the supply of providers, the law encouraged providers to consolidate.
“More demand, no more supply, more consolidation. That’s a perfect recipe for higher prices,” he said.
Enrollment to Further Reduce
The Congressional Budget Office estimated Obamacare enrollment will decrease to 13.1 million in 2027 in its latest projection. In part, that’s because of anti-fraud efforts and eligibility limitations affecting certain immigrants, according to KFF.
Starting in 2027, noncitizen status eligibility for subsidized Obamacare will be limited to certain lawfully present immigrants under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Those include green card holders, Cuban and Haitian entrants, and Compacts of Free Association immigrants.
In June, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services estimated 2.6 million improper and phantom enrollments remain in 2026, including more than 1 million enrollments without a Social Security number.
Meanwhile, enrollees with no medical claims soared after COVID-era subsidy expansion. More than one-third (35 percent) of Obamacare enrollees did not file any medical claims in 2024, up from 19 percent in 2021.
As the Trump administration has been removing phantom enrollees, 25 states have experienced a decline in zero-claim enrollees in 2026 compared with 2024. In North Carolina, enrollees without claims decreased 33 percent during the three years. Decreases in Oklahoma, Mississippi, South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, and Arizona were over 20 percent.
