Normally synonymous with March Madness, the Duke Blue Devils could throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff (CFP) and let the James Madison Dukes waltz right in the door.
That’s among the March Madness-like scenarios facing the CFP committee in the coming days. Unlike the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, the committee only has 12 spots to work with. That includes four automatic bids from the top-four ranked conference champions, including one from the Group of Five leagues.
Before Duke (7–5) kicks off against No. 17 Virginia (10–2) in the ACC championship on Saturday, three Group of Five teams, including JMU, will make their case. JMU (11–1) slipped into the latest CFP rankings on Tuesday at No. 25, which caught much attention nationally.
The Dukes take on Troy (7–5) in the Sun Belt championship on Friday. JMU has a top-10 offense and defense, and the Dukes’ dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III will look to pile on the points to impress the CFP committee.
Meanwhile, No. 24 North Texas (11 –1) and No. 20 Tulane (10–2) will go at it in the American Conference championship on Friday. Either North Texas or Tulane will grab the Group of Five bid, but a Duke upset of Virginia could put the North Texas-Tulane winner in the fourth-highest ranking among conference champions.
The other three are clear cut: Ohio State or Indiana at No. 1, Georgia or Alabama at No. 2 or No. 3, and Texas Tech or BYU at No. 2 or No. 3. All six of those teams have two or fewer losses. Duke, even with an ACC title, has five defeats.
JMU, an FCS powerhouse until 2022 before a move to the FBS, could grab that Group of Five bid with a Duke win and an ascent by North Texas or Tulane. The Blue Devils would have to utterly dominate the Cavaliers at a historical level to have any chance to be considered for the 12-team field.
In the middle of the gridiron hoopla, bubble teams for the CFP are contenders—not college basketball Power Five teams just hoping to make the “Big Dance”. Longtime powerhouses, No. 12 Miami (10–2) and No. 13 Texas (9–3), could end up staying at home despite wins over CFP-bound teams. That includes Texas recently knocking No. 7 Texas A&M (11–1) from the ranks of the unbeaten.
This also means No. 14 Vanderbilt (10–2) out of the SEC won’t have a chance despite a historically great season. The Commodores challenged both Alabama and Texas in both losses.
Based on the current rankings, a Duke win means the No. 5 Oregon Ducks could wind up hosting JMU—a program that isn’t a stranger to winning big road playoff games. JMU is the only team ever to win a road playoff game against FCS titan North Dakota State, which has won 10 championships since 2011 and beat multiple Power Four schools along the way.
The Dukes, winners of two FCS titles and hosts of three College GameDay appearances, have another coach headed to a Power Four program for the second time since 2023. Dukes head coach Bob Chesney recently took the UCLA job, and former Dukes head coach Curt Cignetti currently leads the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (12–0).
North Texas or Tulane taking on Ole Miss would mean two of the four first-round games feature Group of Five teams that weekend, instead of Miami, Texas, or Virginia. There would still be storylines such as North Texas’ high-octane offense going up against the Rebels, or how former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff does with leading Tulane against Ole Miss.
However, this year’s bracket could leave out big names such as Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning or Miami quarterback Carson Beck because of the ACC’s setup. The ACC had a five-team logjam of teams with 6–2 conference records, but they didn’t all play each other, so it came down to tiebreakers.
If Duke stuns Virginia and JMU trounces Troy, the CFP committee certainly will have a devil of a time with the final bracket.
