Commentary
The timing and behavior surrounding the Palestinian attacks point to larger changes occurring in the Middle East and the world.
As the war between Israel and the Palestinians continues in its first week, several questions come to mind. It’s understood, of course, that the Palestinians in general and Hamas in particular want to destroy the state of Israel and remove its people from the land once and for all. Naming the initial strike operation “Al-Aqsa Storm” is meant to put the war in an Islamic context, not just a political one over real estate.
But why did Hamas choose to invade Israel on Oct. 7?
Was it to mark the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur War in 1973? That may have been the reason for choosing that specific date, just as the 9/11 attacks were waged on the anniversary of the Battle of Vienna in 1683, which marked the end of the Muslim military invasion into Europe.
But those are minor and incidental reasons. Below are seven concrete factors that are geopolitical, religious, and psychological in their scope. Some are contradictory, while others are complementary.
1. The Appearance of Israeli Weakness
2. Trap Israel into an Overreaction, Damaging Its Relationships With Islamic Nations
Rather, the slaughter of hundreds of young adults at a music festival and the kidnapping of women and children was intended to provoke an “overreaction,” at least by Palestinian standards, on the part of the Israelis. The Palestinians’ actions so far haven’t been to defeat Israel as a nation, but their objective is to diminish Israel in the eyes of its regional partners and the world, as well as to satisfy Hamas’s anti-Israel sponsors in Tehran and Moscow.
3. Disrupt the Expanding Peace Between Israel and Islamic Nations
By contrast, Arab support for the Palestinian cause has been at a low ebb the past few years, beginning at least with the Abraham Accords that President Donald Trump brokered among Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain in 2020. Today, with the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and several additional Islamic nations, the Palestinians could see their relevancy fading quickly into obsolescence.
As it is, the Palestinians’ close ties with Iran endear them with only a few other Arab nations, such as Yemen and Syria. Iran is a direct threat to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other nations working with Israel. This war may change that.
4. Disrupt Israel’s Growing Energy Business
Israel’s offshore energy industry has become a direct threat to other energy producers, in particular, Iran and Russia. Both nations are threatened by Israeli energy supplies. Israel’s Tamar platform, for instance, in the country’s exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is one of its largest natural gas producing facilities. Before its ordered shutdown soon after war broke out, it was to provide energy to Europe via Egypt for the upcoming winter.
That brings us to Iran and Russia.
5. Iran Needs a War to Keep the Islamists in Power
Externally, Iran is also threatened by the widening influence of Israel in the region and the Islamic world at large. With neither the economic influence nor the soft power to attract but a few regional allies such as Yemen, Syria, and the Palestinians, it can offer only terror, war, and the threat of both to stay relevant. As with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Palestinian National Authority on the West Bank, war is the only card Tehran has to play.
The peace accords and the vast economic potential that they represent would leave Tehran behind the times and, like the Palestinians, irrelevant in an economically vibrant and mostly peaceful Middle East.
6. The Weakness of America
As the old Arabic saying goes, “A falling camel attracts many knives.” From Tehran’s point of view, that’s exactly what the Biden administration looks like. Launching the war is a wager by Tehran that it will gain power and influence in the region, particularly with the Palestinians and Syrians at the expense of the United States and Israel. From Moscow’s viewpoint, trapping the United States in a second war would further weaken it, helping both Russia’s cause in Ukraine and China’s in the Asia-Pacific region.
7. Harden and Escalate the Adversarial Nature of East-West Competition
Are there more reasons and motives for this war launched by Hamas against Israel?
Probably.
Will Israel or the United States be able to prevent the escalation of the war?
At this point, it’s unknown, but there are reasons to be both doubtful and hopeful.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
