In one of the most serious confrontations between North and South Korea in more than 50 years, Dr Dalton said there were extenuating circumstances in North Korea that make the situation more flammable.
A notoriously unpredictable rogue state, North Korea’s economy is in tatters and it is going through a succession process. “In this scenario, you would not want to push a nuclear power like North Korea,” she told The Epoch Times.
A North Korean artillery attack on South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island last week killed four, including two civilians.
South Korea’s president Lee Myung-bak said he would take responsibility for failing to protect South Koreans from the attack and, without being too specific, warned there would be consequences from any future aggression.
“If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail,” said Mr Lee Myung-Bak.
The United States and South Korea have staged their biggest-ever joint naval exercise in the region, led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington.
North Korea responded with fury, state media describing the exercises as a “grave provocation” and
a “crime” that had brought the region to “the brink of war”, the ABC reported.
Dr Dalton said there was the usual posturing on both sides, but the allies needed to be careful not to assume North Korea would not escalate the tension.
Sanctions put in place during the “hawkish” Bush era and under more conservative South Korean governments have hit Korea hard.
While economic sanctions have affected accounts in Switzerland and Macao, it is basic supplies like chemical fertiliser, which is needed for the country’s “horrific” soil degradation, that have made conditions dire for the North Korean people, Dr Dalton explained.
“Some would argue engaging and stopping the sanctions are just rewarding North Korean behaviour, she said, “But you have to think of the humanitarian aspect.”
Complacency
Dr Dalton said South Korea had become complacent about North Korea, a very different attitude then when she was a resident of the South during the ’80s when there would be regular drills on how to hide under the desk in case of an attack.
“Now, South Korea is suffering from ‘North Korea fatigue’—they are over it,” she said.
South Korea also announced this month that it was ceasing the Sunshine Policy, an effort of engagement with the long-term goal of reunification that was initiated during the administration of President Kim Dae-jung and for which he won the Nobel Prize, the International Business Times reported.
The South Korean Unification Ministry said that with billions of dollars spent, there still had been little improvement in the lives of North Koreans and there was now little desire for reunification from both sides.
China: A Key Player
Maintaining a divided Korea “status quo” also figured in China’s strategic planning, Dr Dalton said. China is considered to be the key in keeping the despotic regime afloat.
“It is cheaper and easier to just drip feed North Korea, as China has no interest in extending American influence to its border in the event of reunification,” she explained.
Nuclear weapons are North Korea’s only leverage, says Dr Dalton, noting the recent revelation from US nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker of its highly sophisticated enrichment facilities.
“No nation would give that sort of power up,” she said.
With so many factors coming into play, attention harder to get and intelligence on North Korea lacking, Dr Dalton said she would not like to guess what North Korea’s next move might be.
