Tropical Storm Isaias formed over the southwestern Gulf of America on Oct. 7 and is forecast to rapidly turn into a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, according to federal forecasters.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts Isaias to become a hurricane by Oct. 8 and reach peak sustained winds of about 110 mph on Oct. 9 before moving inland and weakening.
At 110 mph, the storm would be just below Category 3 strength, which begins at 111 mph.
The Weather Channel reported on Oct. 6 that Isaias is “expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the season in the Atlantic.” It stated that Isaias is the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned that the Panhandle could be impacted by Isaias.
“Even if it makes landfall west of the panhandle the eastern, most dangerous side [of] the storm will impact NW Florida,” DeSantis said in an Oct. 7 post on X.
“If you are in those communities make sure to execute your hurricane plan.”
Earlier on Oct. 7, DeSantis signed executive order 26-202, declaring a state of emergency for 25 counties in preparation for the storm, which at the time was designated Tropical Depression Nine.
DeSantis said the order would give communities sufficient time and resources to prepare for potentially severe weather.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) wrote on X on Oct. 6 that Isaias has the “potential to be a very serious storm.”
“I’ll be in Pensacola tomorrow working with local leaders and emergency management officials to make sure families are prepared. Everyone should take this seriously – make a plan NOW!” he said.
The Hurricane Center said Isaias should be “growing in size as it approaches the northern Gulf coast due to a trough interaction.”
It said that hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later on Oct. 7.
Isaias is also expected to bring heavy rainfall to the central Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast from Oct. 9 into the weekend, raising the risk of flash flooding, urban flooding, and isolated river flooding.
Before reaching the United States, the storm is expected to strengthen while passing near the western portion of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, where gusty winds and heavy rain are possible over the next day or two.
The Miami-based hurricane center said Isaias is expected to produce two to four inches of rain through Oct. 8 across coastal areas of the Bay of Campeche, and isolated higher totals are possible in Campeche state and western Yucatán.
From Oct. 9 through the weekend, rainfall totals of three to six inches are forecast across the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, stretching from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Localized totals could reach 10 inches, it said.
Much of the Southeast could receive one to three inches, and local areas could receive up to five inches as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.
The National Weather Service office in Tallahassee said in an Oct. 7 post on X that Isaias is expected to approach major-hurricane status before nearing the Gulf Coast on Oct. 9.
It warned that the storm could produce heavy rain, damaging winds, tornadoes, and storm surge, particularly along and east of its center.
The agency said the 5 a.m. advisory showed a slight eastward shift in the projected track and a somewhat stronger storm than earlier forecasts.
Most impacts across the northeast Gulf Coast are expected from Oct. 9 into Oct. 10 or Oct. 11, it said.
