Average gas prices on Tuesday morning fell under $4 nationwide for the first time in months, coming a week after the midterm elections that saw Democrats net major wins in Congress.
A daily update from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed the national average for regular gasoline at $3.98 per gallon on Tuesday. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote in a post on X that GasBuddy’s national average was just under $3.97.
According to AAA’s figures, the average price for regular gasoline dropped about 3 cents from Monday to Tuesday, while it dropped roughly 17 cents over the past week. A month ago, the price averaged out to $4.37.
De Haan noted that the average price for diesel—the fuel used by truckers, farmers, and heavy industry—remained above $6 per gallon on Tuesday, standing at almost $6.16 nationwide.
He said diesel was falling about 1 to 2 cents per day and forecast that it would drop below $6 per gallon around Thanksgiving. Gasoline was falling about 1 to 3 cents per day, “about as quickly as the national average moves,” De Haan wrote.
De Haan wrote Tuesday that Ohio and Indiana should each see hundreds of stations selling gasoline below $3 per gallon around Thanksgiving, barring a major change. He said Michigan and Wisconsin could see a few stations under $3, but he cautioned against expecting it.
De Haan wrote Monday that some people were crediting or blaming the midterms for the drop, but that “prices tend to drop in the fall.” The biggest factor, he wrote, was the switch to winter-blend gasoline, which stations can sell after Sept. 15 and which is cheaper to make because summer gas must meet tighter evaporation rules that cost refiners more.
He also pointed to cooling demand after the summer driving season ended and to a fading risk premium as hurricane season wound down and refinery maintenance wrapped up.
From Sept. 1 to Nov. 9, the national average fell in 13 of the 18 years from 2008 to 2025, De Haan wrote, with typical drops of about 25 to 55 cents. He wrote that this year’s average was down about 35 cents over that period.
Since the start of the Iran war, launched in February of this year, fuel prices have risen. Diesel prices hit their all-time high in September, according to AAA.
Ahead of the midterms, President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that more expensive fuel is a small price to pay for the war, which he described as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He said that his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, was a reason for the country’s economic problems.
Trump also has said that lower gas prices would come after the midterms, amid the on-again-off-again war with Iran.
“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said in early September. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”
On Monday, Trump told reporters at the White House there is a “good chance” the Iran war would end soon and that Iran’s regime is talking “very politely” with his administration. A return to full-scale strikes against Iran isn’t likely, he also remarked, adding that U.S. forces are “locked and loaded.”
“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said. “We’re just keeping it the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbors.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
