Commentary
Americans have always been wealthier, on average, than citizens of the People’s Republic of China. For two decades, China was closing the gap, but since 2021 that trend has reversed.
In 2000, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was nearly 38 times China’s, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. By 2010, that ratio had fallen to 10.6, reaching a low of 5.5 in 2021.
According to IMF data, U.S. GDP per capita is projected to reach $94,430 in 2026, compared with $14,874 in China, making the U.S. figure about 6.3 times that of China. The dollar gap is projected to widen by 9.4 percent between 2024 and 2026, reaching nearly $80,000.
China’s earlier gains came from a low starting point. It was not until 2009 that its GDP per capita reached the inflation-adjusted level of U.S. GDP per capita in 1870. China’s 2009 figure of $3,879 was equivalent to approximately $229 to $252 in 1870 dollars, depending on whether the consumer price index or GDP deflator is used.
When Xi Jinping became Communist Party general secretary in November 2012, he promised greater prosperity. At his first news conference on Nov. 15 of that year, Xi said, “Our people love life and expect better education, more stable jobs, better income.” He added that they wanted stronger social security, better medical care, more comfortable housing, and a cleaner environment, along with a better future for their children.
Yet China’s last year of double-digit GDP growth was 2010—before Xi took power—when the economy grew by 10.4 percent. Growth has generally trended downward since then, despite temporary rebounds. China’s economy grew by 5 percent in 2025, and the government’s 2026 target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent signals that it anticipates a possible further slowdown.
The Chinese Communist Party prefers when economists use a figure called purchasing power parity, or PPP, rather than nominal dollars because it makes the difference look smaller. The concept is that many things are cheaper in China, so a Chinese citizen earning $15,000 a year can live as well as an American earning a much higher salary.
PPP also puts China ahead in total economic size. Measured in PPP, China’s GDP is projected at $44.3 trillion for 2026, about 37 percent larger than the U.S. economy’s $32.4 trillion. That gives the Party a comparison it likes: China as the world’s largest economy. In nominal dollars, however, the U.S. economy is about 55 percent larger than China’s $20.9 trillion.
However, goods and services are paid for in actual currency, not PPP dollars. If a Chinese citizen and an American earning those respective amounts went to France, the American could buy more. If they were in the United States, the American could buy more. And if they were in China, the American could still buy more.
PPP does not erase the income gap. It helps explain how someone in China can survive on an income below the U.S. poverty line. The 2026 U.S. poverty guideline for a single person in the 48 contiguous states is $15,960 a year, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. If we use GDP per capita as a rough proxy for average income, the average Chinese citizen would qualify for food stamps in the United States.
The widening gap puts China further from fulfilling Xi’s ambition of catching up with the United States economically. In 2020, Xi said it was “entirely possible” to double GDP or per capita income from 2020 levels by 2035. That same year, the Centre for Economics and Business Research projected that China would overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2028.
Even if the U.S. economy grows by only 2 percent annually, China would not overtake it in total GDP until about 2044, assuming that China sustains 4.5 percent growth, the bottom of its 2026 target. At Beijing’s official floor of 4.17 percent growth through 2035, the crossover would come in about 2047.
Catching up in GDP per capita would take much longer. Starting from China’s $14,874 versus the United States’ $94,430, the projection puts parity in about 2085, even accounting for China’s shrinking population. By this projection, Xi has fallen short of his promise of prosperity and will not live to see Chinese citizens become as wealthy as Americans.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
