President Donald Trump made his administration the center point of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, pleading with supporters while touring the nation to vote as if his name were on the ballot.
“In this election, I’m asking you to pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time,” Trump said on the campaign trail. “Because, essentially, I am.”
While some past presidents attempted to distance themselves from the midterm spotlight, he repeated the sentiment across dozens of rallies during a midterm blitz nationwide.
“When I’m not on the ballot, we don’t do well,” Trump said in multiple speeches over the past month.
Historically, midterms have served as a referendum on the sitting president, giving voters an opportunity to approve and accelerate the presiding party’s agenda or put a check on the executive branch’s power.
If the polls are accurate this year, Democrats are poised to flip enough seats in both chambers to control the Senate and the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold slim majorities, 53 to 47 and 218 to 214, respectively.
Available data suggests the Democrats have a clear path to winning the House, with closer races in the Senate.
Historical Precedent
Sitting presidents watched their party’s power evaporate in all but two of the 20 midterm elections held since World War II.
Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush bucked the trend in 1998 and 2002, respectively, when their parties gained ground. At the time, both presidents’ approval ratings were north of 60 percent.
Bush later lost both chambers in 2006, when his approval plummeted to 37 percent.
Trump’s disapproval rating sits at about 60 percent, as of Oct. 30, with his approval rating hovering around 37 percent, up one point from all-time lows from early October, according to recent polls.
Democrats gained 40 House seats in 2018 during Trump’s first term, but Republicans gained two seats in the Senate.
Early Indicators
Pre-election voting data compiled by the University of Florida’s Election Lab shows fewer Republicans voting early than in past elections, with higher turnouts for Democrats and Independents. Conservative voters historically turn out in higher numbers on Election Day.
Trump packed his schedule with rallies to boost his party’s chances, speaking for more than 90 minutes at most stops, with his voice going noticeably hoarse toward the end of the month.
Thousands of Americans turned out to hear the president speak during his recent tour, which saw him traverse the country with near-daily appearances. Supporters of all ages expressed backing for his leadership.
Others came looking for change and voiced opposition to the administration, with organized protests at most rallies and disruptions at many of Trump’s recent events. Common protest themes included the cost of living, Epstein files transparency, and anti-war messages.
“We’re out here to make a statement and make a difference,” one protester, Matt, who only gave his first name, told The Epoch Times while holding a sign outside a rally in Kalispell, Montana, calling for lower gas and food prices.
“If we could afford groceries to feed our family, we wouldn’t be out here in the cold complaining.”
Across the country, voters reported high fuel prices, inflation, and the Iran war as the most important issues.
Both parties flooded the airwaves with pundits, urging their bases to turn out with a slew of messages challenging their opponents’ values.
Democrats embraced Trump’s framing of the election as a referendum, running ads in battleground states tying Republican candidates to his policies.
What’s at Stake
If Democrats emerge victorious in both chambers, the party would hold subpoena power and control committees for Trump’s remaining two years. Members could review the administration’s economic and foreign policy decisions, in addition to the president’s family’s activities.
When Democrats controlled the House of Representatives in the last half of his first term, Congress members persistently pursued investigations and impeachment hearings.
A Republican loss this year would threaten the progress made in his second term and force a reliance on executive orders, according to the president, as the opposition party could constrain legislative efforts and send bills to the White House that don’t align with the administration’s agenda.
“I have a strong veto,” Trump told reporters when asked how he would handle a Democrat-controlled Congress.
Some former supporters are critical of the steps taken by the president since he reclaimed the White House.
Conflicts with former Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), among others, led to a splintering of support from those formerly in line with Trump’s agenda.
“Democrats are projected to win on Tuesday, but it’s not a true Democrat victory. It’s a referendum on Trump, Republican failures, and Americans are sick of it,” Greene wrote on Oct. 30 on X.
Americans casting their ballots on Tuesday will decide whether the president succeeded in mobilizing his base to defend the party’s control or Democrats gained enough momentum to change the balance of power.
—Travis Gillmore
BOOKMARKS
Lindsay Clancy’s attorneys argued on Monday that her case should be tossed out because of double jeopardy. They said the judge should have kicked off the lone dissenting juror instead of declaring a mistrial.
The pilot of the Learjet crash in Palm Beach County, Florida, has been identified as 20-year-old Nathalia Gadelha Filgueiras, her family has confirmed. The National Transportation Safety Board confirmed there were two pilots and seven passengers on board, but declined to identify them.
A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer who was indicted for allegedly hitting a fleeing illegal immigrant with his car in Texas turned himself in on Monday. ICE agent Mario Alberto Morales was charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, in this case a motor vehicle.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) asked the Supreme Court to order California to sequester about 20,000 mail ballots the department says likely belong to noncitizens. “Once California commingles the challenged ballots with lawful ones, there is no way to get the challenged ballots back,” U.S. Solicitor General D. John Sauer said in the new filing.
Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) has said Alaska Senate candidate Mary Peltola might not be seated if she wins the race. Find out why by reading Jack Phillips’ latest.
—Stacy Robinson
