Today, voters in Texas and North Carolina will cast their ballots in the first major contested primary elections of the 2026 midterm elections.
The elections in the two states have high stakes for the control of Congress in 2027.
The Texas Senate primaries for both parties have become some of the most closely-watched in the nation, as Democrats vie for an upset victory over the GOP nominee in the general election.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Republican candidates are facing off for their party’s nominations in a district redrawn to favor the GOP.
Here’s what to know.
While both parties are investing substantial resources and attention toward the race to be the Lone Star State’s next senator, Republicans enter the race with a strong advantage after President Donald Trump won the state by more than 14 points in 2024.
The incumbent in the race, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), is facing one of the toughest primary challenges of his career from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is also seeking the Republican nomination.
Political analysts and betting markets largely view Paxton and Cornyn as the leading contenders.
Paxton entered the race earlier this year, carrying lingering fallout from past controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal by the Texas Senate. Framing the contest in ideological terms, Paxton has cast the race as a showdown between his brand of populist “America First” conservatism and what he describes as establishment politics embodied by Cornyn.
Cornyn, meanwhile, has characterized the primary as a referendum on character, pointing to Paxton’s impeachment proceedings and other legal issues. At a recent campaign event, Cornyn accused Paxton of a “scandal-plagued career” and warned that he could be a “dead weight” on the ballot. [delete]
He currently holds a 3.8 lead over Cornyn in RealClearPolitics polling averages.
Given the favorable national political environment, Democrats hope for a long-shot win in the Lone Star State’s Senate election this year.
Texas state Rep. James Talarico led the pack of potential Democratic nominees, though polls show the possibility of a close race with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who entered the race last year.
Talarico rose to prominence during the redistricting battle this summer as Texas Republicans voted to add five Republican districts to the state’s congressional map. The former seminarian has gained national media and online attention for his Christian-focused messaging.
His main rival for the nomination is Crockett, who entered the race on Oct. 8. Crockett has become well-known for her heated questions during hearings on Capitol Hill.
Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) had been running, but ended his bid for the nomination after Crockett announced her candidacy.
According to recent polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Talarico is leading Crockett by 4.5 percent.
In hypothetical polling match-ups, surveys have consistently found that Talarico would be advantaged in a race against Paxton, but is disfavored if Republicans select Cornyn as their nominee.
Meanwhile, polling has shown Crockett at a disadvantage against either of the major Republican candidates.
The primary race will be held on March 3, and any runoff races are scheduled for May 26.
In North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is running for reelection in a district that was redrawn through redistricting.
Davis won a second term in 2024 by less than 2 percent, becoming one of 13 House Democrats to win elections in districts won by Trump. He’s criticized the new boundaries for his districts, which now favor Republicans.
He faces no opposition in the Democratic primary, while five Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination.
Among them is former Trump administration official and Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, who is seeking a rematch after narrowly losing to Davis in 2024.
State Sen. Bobby Hanig, former sheriff Asa Buck, and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse are other political notables in the district seeking the nomination.
Rounding out the GOP field is attorney and small-business owner Ashley-Nicole Russell.
In North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District, five Democrats are competing in the primary for the opportunity to take on incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.).
Although Edwards won reelection comfortably in 2024, Democrats are aiming to flip the seat in the upcoming election.
The Democratic field includes farmer Jamie Ager, educator and advocate Zelda Briarwood, physician Richard Hudspeth, cancer researcher and professor Paul Maddox, and civil engineer Lee Whipple.
Ager is centering his campaign on lowering everyday costs, expanding access to health care, advancing immigration reform, and strengthening public safety. An internal Democratic poll shared with Newsweek shows Ager leading Edwards by 1 percentage point.
Briarwood is advocating for increased investment in rural health care, expanding Medicaid, limiting private equity ownership of residential housing, and making community college tuition-free.
—Joseph Lord, Jackson Richman, and Nathan Worcester
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